Hughes the Boss

(image courtesy of nj.com)

CC Sabathia is as close to a sure thing as the Yankees can get at the top of the rotation. A.J. Burnett, who will be starting in the second spot to start the season, could be the biggest question mark in baseball. Somewhere in between lies the nominal third starter for the club, Phil Hughes. Entering his second full season as a starter, the 24-year old will have a tremendous say in the Bombers’ success, or lack-there-of.

Now four years removed from his status as the number one pitching prospect in baseball, Hughes is poised to be a key cog in the Yankees 2011 season. Last year, after a dominating first six starts to the season (1.38 ERA, 9.0 K/9, .446 OPS against), Hughes finished with a solid, albeit unspectacular, 4.19 ERA (4.25 FIP) with a 1.25 WHIP and 2.4 WAR. Sure, he won 18 games, but that was more an example of wins being a team stat rather than an individual one than it was an accurate representation of Hughes’ performance. Only 52% of his starts were quality starts (good for 69th in baseball) and was #1 in all of the Major Leagues in run support with an average of 9.60 runs per game (over a run higher than second ranked Kyle Kendrick).

That being said, the numbers Hughes put up in his first full season as a Big League starter (in the AL East, no less), were very promising, even if they weren’t as good as his record suggests. He finished among the top 20 AL starters in strikeout rate and had a slightly above average ERA+.  Keep in mind that the much heralded (and heavily overrated) Clay Buchholz put up lesser numbers in fewer than 100 innings at the same age. In fact, Hughes is still younger than Buchholz was during his breakout season last year. Because he first burst on to the scene at the age of 20, it’s easy to forget just how young he still is.

It’s fair to assume that, given his young age and impressive stuff, Hughes will be able to make significant strides in the next couple of seasons as he continues to develop and adjusts to the league. Accordingly, both Bill James and Marcel project a fairly significant uptick in performance for Hughes (3.56 and 3.80 projected ERA respectively, along with strikeout rates close to or better than 8.0 per 9 innings). I actually think that he has the potential to pitch even better than that, going forward. He is still extremely young and his stuff is good enough that, as he gains more and more experience, I believe he can still turn into the ace he was once projected to become (whether or not he can reach those heights this season or further in the future remains to be seen).

All that being said, Hughes definitely has plenty of work to do if he’s going to reach his potential. He didn’t have an ERA over 4 by accident in 2010. His repertoire is still a work in progress. While Hughes’ fastball finally returned to what it was when he was a highly touted prospect (following injury and some ill-advised mechanical tweaks by Dave Eiland), his formerly outstanding curveball has become somewhat erratic. When Hughes is able to get the curve over the plate (and get it in the dirt when the situation requires), his breaking ball is outstanding. However, he frequently loses both command and control of the pitch and either misses the zone altogether, or leaves it a little to far over the plate and gets hit hard.

As a result, Phil has fallen in love with the cutter that he has developed over the last couple of years. While it’s a good pitch, it isn’t going to be confused with Mariano’s cutter anytime soon and, when hitters sit on it, Hughes runs in to trouble. According to the LoHud blog, Larry Rothschild has worked with Hughes on the pitch during spring and it’s now a little close to the slider Hughes came through the system with (and it looked particularly dominant tonight against the Blue Jays). Additionally, All season long, fans were clamoring for Hughes to show hitters a change to help keep hitters off balance. Thankfully, Rothschild has also but a lot of emphasis on making Phil focus on improving that pitch and having him utilize it more.

The Yankees are banking on all of this hard work and development to pay off. With the abilities of the back end of the rotation heavily in question and Burnett coming off of such a rough season, Hughes needs to take that next step forward and cement himself as a top of the rotation starter in order to get the Bombers through the gauntlet that is the AL East.

Sabathia Holding Down the Fort

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The first two years of CC Sabathia’s tenure in the Bronx have gone about as well as anyone could have hoped for. Since signing the largest contract ever given to a pitcher, Sabathia has fronted a pitching staff that led the Yankees to a World Series title and another trip to the ALCS. He wasn’t just an ace in name, either, posting a 3.27 ERA with a combined WAR of 11.7 in 467.2 innings since putting on the pinstripes. While CC’s fellow big money pitcher on the staff, A.J. Burnett, has been something of a disappointment thanks to his disastrous 201o, Sabathia has managed to find himself in the thick of the Cy Young race in both seasons.

Even though his strikeout and walk rates have worsened slightly from the numbers he was posting in his last few years as a member of the Cleveland Indians (most likely due to the deeper, more powerful lineups he has been facing in the AL East rather than those in the Central), the towering lefty is currently in the prime of his career. In each of his past 4 full years in the AL, his ERA has ranged between 3.18 and 3.37, with a FIP falling into a similar 3.14 – 3.54 range (I’m not including 2008, which he split between Cleveland and Milwaukee and posted an even better 2.70 ERA with a 2.91 FIP).

He has been the picture of consistency since his Cy Young Award winning 2007 season with the Indians. The only thing that has really changed over that span is that, last season, Sabathia managed to buck the trend of slow starts that had plagued his career. For the first time since 2004, CC actually had a lower ERA prior to the All-Star break than after it (3.09 versus 3.29). Entering his age 30 season, Sabathia seems to be a pretty safe bet to put up similar numbers once again in 2011.

That, of course, brings us to the looming issue of the opt-out clause in Sabathia’s contract. Having shown up to camp somewhere between 25 and 30 pounds lighter than he was last year, CC seems to be positioning himself to get another big pay-day at the end of the season. Sabathia is on record as saying that he would not exercise the opt-out, but he has softened on that stance a bit of late and is currently keeping quiet on the matter. I personally couldn’t fault him if he did end up using it. The clause was negotiated for a reason, so it’s hard to blame him were he to maximize the value of his deal.

That being said, as long as CC stays healthy, I think the most likely outcome is for the Yankees to tack another 3 or 4 years on to his current contract. The fact is, the Yankees need Sabathia to anchor their staff (he’s currently the only sure thing they have in the rotation) and CC knows that there’s nobody out there who can give him more than the Bombers can. Sure, it’s preferable not to have to extend such a big guy with so many miles already on his arm until he’s in his late 30’s, but there doesn’t really seem to be any way around that at this point.

The one benefit to the whole opt-out dilemma is that the Yankees will not only have a CC Sabathia in his prime at the front of the rotation, but an in-shape Sabathia in a contract year. That can only be a good thing as far as his 2011 performance is concerned.

Freddy vs Fat Bart

(image courtesy of nj.com)

With less than two weeks remaining until the start of the regular season, the rotation is starting to come together. Over the weekend, Joe Girardi announced that the first three games of the season will be started by CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Phil Hughes, respectively and, while the team has refused to make anything official, the final two spots of the rotation are beginning to come into focus.

Within the first week of camp, Brian Cashman had announced that none of the Killer B’s (Brackman, Banuelos, and Betances) would be making the club to start the season, which effectively narrowed the race down to four guys for two spots. Early on, it seemed like Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia had the inside track with Sergio Mitre slated to reprise his role as the team’s long reliever and Bartolo Colon left as the odd man out.

His first four Spring games have essentially guaranteed Nova the number 4 slot. The 24-year old has only allowed 2 runs on 7 hits in his 14 innings of work, including a stellar 6 inning, hit-less performance his last time out while unveiling an impressive new slider. Nova showed a lot of promise last season when he was first called up last season. Even though he had difficulty getting deep into games, his stuff looked great and he showed an attitude I think would help him thrive in New York when he knocked down Jose Bautista in his first Major League start.

While it’s obviously difficult to predict how any rookie will adjust to the challenges of the big leagues, particularly in under the microscope of the Bronx, I think Nova has shown enough talent and poise to generate some excitement with regards to what type of production he might be able to provide.

Mitre has missed some time with an oblique injury, which has certainly hampered his chances of getting a spot in the rotation. While Girardi has long professed a belief that Mitre could be a successful starter, he has never shown that ability on the Major League level and, last season, Mitre seemed to find a home in long relief, posting a 3.33 ERA to go along with very impressive groundball numbers. He certainly hasn’t done anything to inspire any real confidence over the long haul and, while he’s probably got the smallest chance of winning a starting job, I think he is probably close to a lock to make the team out of the pen. Neither of the other two candidates seem particularly suited for the role.

Of the two remaining viable candidates, Garcia came into camp heavily favored over Colon. He had pitched in the Major Leagues in 2010 and, while not particularly impressive, was at least a competent Major Leaguer. He managed to throw 157 innings on the big league level while posting a 4.64 ERA (4.77 FIP). Colon, on the other hand, hasn’t pitched in the bigs since 2009, when he only threw 62 1/3 innings. In the five seasons since his 2005 Cy Young season, he has thrown 257 mostly terrible innings (5.18 ERA, 1.51 WHIP).

Given their recent resumes, Garcia seemed to be the obvious choice for the job, but Spring Training has turned things around. After last night’s stellar performance against the Rays, Colon’s numbers stand at a 2.40 ERA with a phenomenal 17 strikeouts and only 1 walk in 15 innings, while Garcia has been rocked to the tune of a 5.93 spring ERA. I know that Grapefruit League stats are pretty much meaningless, but it’s how the two pitchers have looked while getting to those numbers that makes Colon the obvious choice. His control has been outstanding all spring and his velocity has been sitting in the 91-93 MPH range, while occasionally hitting 94. His two-seamer and cutter have also looked sharp. Garcia’s control has also been good, but his fastball has been in the mid-80s and he looks incredibly hittable.

There’s certainly no guarantee that Bartolo Colon will be anything better than awful once the regular season begins, but with the way he is currently throwing the ball, it would be a huge mistake to give Garcia a spot on the roster over Colon. Colon at least looks like his stuff would translate to the AL East and allow the team to get by until they can get a hold of a higher end pitcher on the trade market mid-season or until one of the young guns is ready for the Show. The current incarnation of Freddy Garcia looks like he would be Brad Penny or John Smolts Re-Dux in this division. We can only hope Cashman and Girardi are sensible enough to give the right man the job.

Rafael Soriano: The Impact of a Quality Setup Man

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On January 7, Brian Cashman announced to the press that he was unwilling to surrender the Yankees’ first round pick in order to sign any of the remaining type-A free agents in the wake of Cliff Lee signing with Philadelphia. Six days later, the Yankees signed type-A free agent Rafael Soriano to an absolutely ludicrous three-year/$35 million contract that features opt-out clauses after each of the first two years in order to bring in a setup man for Mariano Rivera. There’s really no defending the contract. They lose the first-rounder that Cashman was so adamant about holding on to, they pay closer’s money for a setup man (albeit, a closer who will be setting up), and they give the player complete control over the length of his stay in the Bronx.

That being said, spending the money on Soriano isn’t going to stop the Yankees from acquiring someone to fill the holes on the roster and, if he opts out, they will have the resources to replace him. The deal is done and Soriano is in pinstripes, giving the Bombers a dynamic 1-2 combo in the 8th and 9th innings while allowing Joba Chamberlain and David Robertson to slide into supporting roles. They improved an area of the ballclub that was already a strength, making it potentially the best relief-corp in the league. Purely in terms of the signing as a baseball move, it certainly helps the team. The question is: how much?

Soriano can be a dominant force in he back end of the bullpen. Last season as the Tampa Bay Rays closer, he was one of, if not the best relievers in baseball. While his 8.23 K/9 was the lowest of his career in any full season, it was still excellent and, coupled with significantly improved control (2.02 BB/9), he posted an outstanding 1.73 ERA (2.81 FIP). He was certainly the benefit of some good luck (an unsustainably low BABIP of .199 and 4.8% HR/FB rate), but part of his success can also be attributed to the development of his now-phenomenal cutter, a pitch that he only developed in 2009, which he threw close to one-third of the time. A good cutter induces poorly hit balls that can account for at least part of his freakishly low BABIP.

While his peripherals show that we probably shouldn’t expect Soriano to be quite as good as he was in 2010, his career numbers prove him to be extremely reliable, when healthy. The 31-year old hasn’t had an ERA above 3.00 in any year (excluding 2004, when he threw 3 1/3 innings) and, since becoming a reliever, has never has a WHIP over 1.14. He also proved he could handle the pressure and talent of the AL East last year in Tampa Bay, something that has often haunted Yankee middle-relief acquisitions (Kyle Farnsworth, LaTroy Hawkins, Chris Hammond anyone?).

As good as he can be for the team, it remains debatable just how much of an impact a setup man can have on a team. They only pitch one inning at a time, most likely between 65 and 75 for an entire season, and they aren’t closing games out for you. They only have so much opportunity to impact a game. Even if they are utterly dominant, they are only pitching 1/9 of any game they are a part of. WAR has never been a stat that is kind to relievers (Soriano was only 1.7 wins above replacement last year) and does not believe there is a significant difference between a great reliever and a simply solid one. Personally, I don’t think it accurately measures how much a lockdown reliever can impact a team. First of all, a high percentage of Soriano’s 65-75 innings will be in high leverage situations. He will be pitching late in close games when the outcome is hanging in the balance. In fact, because he isn’t the closer, he isn’t confined to a specific inning by any de facto “rules”. Girardi can put him in whenever the opponent has the greatest chance of doing damage.

While that is obviously the most important aspect of Soriano’s job, getting big outs is only part of the benefit of having him around. Having him on the roster also lengthens the bullpen, Joba and Robertson, who would have otherwise been sharing 8th inning duties (and would have been above average players for that role), are now pushed to the 6th and 7th innings. Combined with Logan and Feliciano, the Yankees will be able to match-up with opposing teams rather than being forced to save their bullets later. This will lead to less leads being blown because Girardi couldn’t afford to take one of his pitchers out for a better matchup.

Additionally, Mariano Rivera isn’t getting any younger. While he may seem like some sort of robot or supernatural being, he’s actually a 41-year old who has managed to defy age. I’m not suggesting Rivera will decline this year (he’s shown absolutely no sign of it to this point), but it will be beneficial to have a dominant reliever in front of him, preventing Girardi from being forced to bring  Mo in for four and five out saves or from having to get up in the pen when a larger lead begins to slip away. It also allows the Yankees to give Rivera a few days off to rest here and there since Soriano has had such success closing in the AL East and if, god forbid, Mariano were to go down for any extended period of time, the Yankees would have a competent replacement who they would have confidence in to hold down the fort.

All in all, while the terms of his contract are asinine, Rafael Soriano makes the Yankees much better, both when he pitches and where he allows others on the team to pitch. It will be a lot of fun to watch this bullpen perform this season.

Rumors of Tex’s Demise Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

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When Mark Teixeira first arrived in the Bronx in 2009, he brought with him everything the Yankees and their fans had hoped for. After spurning an offer from Boston and signing an even more lucrative deal with the Yankees, he put up monster numbers and was one of the key cogs that helped the team capture its 27th championship. The slick-fielding first baseman surpassed many of the lofty goals placed upon him by the hungry fanbase. His outstanding .292/.383/.565 line and league-leading 39 home runs combined with his stellar defense to make Teixeira one of the leading MVP candidates in the American League.

The 2010 campaign was not nearly as kind to Tex. While his defense never faltered and he earned another well-deserved Gold Glove, Teixeira’s offensive totals were not up to his usual, All-Star caliber standards. His slash line of .256/.365/.481 represented his lowest production in all three categories (batting average, on-base, and slugging) since his rookie season. He still managed to hit his fair share of home runs, belting 33 long balls, but there was obviously a drop-off from his debut season in pinstripes.

During the off-season, there have been fans and media members who have voiced concern that Teixeira, with six years remaining on his contract, could turn out to be another Jason Giambi. There are those who fear that the poor 2010 will be a continuing trend and that Teixeira, who is owed $22.5 million per season over the remainder of his deal, will become an albatross to the franchise. Despite having an MVP caliber 2002 debut season with the Bombers, Giambi never was able to live up to the expectations or his contract over the final six years of the deal. He still contributed to the offense and had a very solid Yankee career, but he was a big disappoint when that performance was compared to what people thought we would bring to New York. Critics point to Teixeira’s unorthodox approach at the plate and his numbers last season as their main reasons for believing the 31-year old could be headed for an early decline.

However, I am supremely confident that this is not the case. 2010 was not the first sign of decline from Teixeira, but rather a little bad luck mixed with a late season injury. Tex has always been a slow starter and last season was certainly no different. Through the first 29 games of the season, he put up a wretched .207/.343/.396 line with 5 home runs. As bad as that was, that .739 OPS was right in line with the abysmal .191/.328/.418 with 7 round trippers from the year before.

Once the Yankees got to the 30th game of the year, Teixeira took off, as he is wont to do. Over the next 101 games, Teixeira caught fire, hitting 25 home runs to go along with an excellent .286/.381/.548 slash line. That was slightly down from the .309/.396/.581 slash line, again with 25 bombs, that he posted over the same period of time a year prior (.929 OPS vs .977), but that can at least be partially explained by poor luck with balls in play. His BABIP fell by .034 from 2009 to 2010 despite a similar line drive rate and similar power numbers. Overall, Teixeira played extremely similarly over the first five months of both seasons in New York.

The big difference in his overall numbers happened from September 2 through the end of the season and the reason for that discrepency couldn’t be more obvious. In the Yankees game on September 1, Teixeira fouled a ball off of his foot, fracturing a bone in his toe. Because the team was in a race for the division title, the team continued to put him in the lineup every day. However, his numbers suffered dramatically while playing through the injury. A year earlier, he put up a mammoth line of .333/.398/.657 with 7 home runs over the final month of the season (to put that in context, those are essentially Albert Pujols’ career slash numbers). 2010 couldn’t have been more different. With his foot heavily taped and causing pain with every swing, Teixeira flopped down the stretch, hitting only 3 home runs to go with a .200/.333/.324 line. Whereas September of 2009 solidified his MVP candidacy, September 2010 saw Teixeira’s numbers plummet, resulting in a .102 year-over-year drop in OPS. So, basically, what we have here is a typical Teixeira start to the season followed by his standard demolition of the league thereafter, only his dominance was cut short by a fluke injury.

That’s certainly not to say that Teixeira’s early season struggles aren’t concerning, because the team will need him to perform better in the early goings of the year. Particularly with all of the question marks in the rotation, they can’t afford to have their number three hitter be dormant for the first month or two of 2011. There are reports that he has been working with miracle-worker Kevin Long on changing his approach to allow him to get out of the gates a bit hotter, but I remain skeptical that, after close to a decade in the major leagues, Teixeira will suddenly put an end to his April woes. That being said, if anyone can turn him around, it’s Long.

Most projection systems are expecting Teixeira to rebound quite a bit from his down season last year, although not quite to the numbers we had grown accustomed to seeing him produce. However, I’m not certain how well they accounted for the drag playing on a broken foot had on his numbers. I would be shocked if we don’t see something pretty much in line with what we saw when Teixeira did in his first season with the Yankees and, if he can somehow find a way to become even a reasonable facsimile of his normal self when the season kicks off, the rest of the AL could have its hands full.

And If You Don’t Know, Now Cano

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Sorry about that horrible pun in the title in honor of yesterday’s anniversary of the death of Notorious B.I.G., but it had to be done. That notwithstanding, the last six years have seen Robinson Cano evolve from relatively minor prospect, to everyday player, to superstar. It can certainly be argued that, at this point, Cano is the best hitter on the team (I don’t think he’s quite there yet, but give it another year or two and that probably changes). While Girardi has already shot it down as a possibility, many believe Robbie deserves to be in the three hole of the lineup, with Mark Teixeira sliding down to fifth.

Not only can he rake, but he has developed into one of the best defensive secondbasemen in baseball. His mental lapses in the field that plagued the early part of his career have gone away. Now, he is able to consistently show off his outstanding range and his shortstop caliber arm. He took home the Gold Glove in 2010 and, unlik e his double-play partner, you can actually make the case that he deserved it.

Still only 28, Cano looks like he has a long, dominant career in the middle of the lineup ahead of him. After being called up in May 2005 to replace Yankee legend Tony Womack (Monument Park awaits his plaque), the unheralded 22-year old provided Yankee fans with a nice surprise, providing an OPS+ of 106 in his rookie season. He batted .297 and flashed some power, slamming 14 homers.

The following season showed just how exciting a player Cano can be. He hit an unbelievable .342/.365/.525, far surpassing any expectations or hopes. Those numbers came in spite of a horrific first couple of months that had the team contemplate sending him back to AAA and finding a replacement (maybe they could have treated us to a second helping of Womack). Thankfully, Cano turned it around with a vengeance. Over the final four months of the season, he stung the ball to the tune of a Pujols-esque .372/.395/.616. After another excellent season in 2007, Cano had an extremely poor 2008 with a measly 0.2 WAR in 159 games and an abysmal OPS+ of 86, causing some to question his focus and work ethic, especially given his reputation for partying. I personally think he was just extremely unlucky. His strikeout rate actually dropped in that season and his line drive percentage was in line with the rest of his career, but his BABIP was significantly lower than in any other season.

Cano silenced all doubters in the past two years, however, cementing himself as one of, if not the, best secondbasemen in baseball. Gone were the lapses in the field, cold starts to the season, and streakiness. He even improved upon his fabled lack of patience at the plate. Robbie pounded out a line of .320/.366/.527 over the course of his last two campaigns and earned WARs of 4.4 and 6.4 in ’09 and ’10 respectively.

Cano has even started to develop into something of a leader, bringing Francisco Cervelli to his home in the Dominican Republic in the offseason to help him with his hitting. His work ethic, something that was frequently a topic of discussion on sports radio in the early part of his career, is certainly no longer a question. He spent a lot of time in the offseason working with Kevin Long, honing his already impressive hitting skills.

All this leads us back to the question of where Cano belongs in the lineup. As good as Cano is, I don’t think it’s time to slide Teixeira or A-Rod down in the lineup just yet. Much like Robbie’s 2008, Teixeira suffered from some bad luck (which I’ll get further into in a future post) last season which, combined with his broken foot down the stretch, led to his down season. A-Rod, while not the hitter he once was, is still a force to be reckoned with and is, reportedly, finally fully recovered from his 2009 hip surgery. Cano is a major offensive weapon who pitchers need to fear and his position in the five-hole only speaks to how much firepower the Yankees have in their lineup. In a couple years, as Cano is firmly entrenched in his prime and the other two guys in the middle of the order begin/continue to decline, they will be able to slide him up in the order without taking much of a hit.

He is just entering what would be considered his peak years, so it’s fair to expect this sort of outstanding performance to continue for a while which, at a time when the team’s stars are mostly on the wrong side of 30, could be critical to the future success of the Yankees. It behooves the Bombers to get Cano extended to a lucrative, long-term deal as soon as possible and lock him of for the foreseeable future, although given team policy and Cano’s recent hiring of Scott Boras as his agent, it seems pretty close to impossible that anything will be negotiated prior to free-agency in the 2012-2013 winter. Thankfully, if there’s one team able to survive a Boras hostage crisis, it’s the Yankees and I am supremely confident that Robbie will be in pinstripes for years to come. It’s not a stretch to say that, in a couple years, Robinson Cano could easily be the face of the franchise and, as a Yankee fan, that’s certainly not a bad thing.

Grand Aspirations

 

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This time last year, Curtis Granderson was the big new addition in Yankees camp. There were big expectations for the newly acquired centerfielder after a down year in his final season with Detroit. He is a player with speed, power, and above average defense in the outfield and the Yankees gave up quite a bit to get him. Granted, I wasn’t a huge fan of any of the players they moved in the trade as far as their ability to help in the Bronx was concerned, but there was definitely a lot of value in the package.

Granderson put up outstanding numbers in the first three full seasons of his career, posting a slash line of .282/.353/.495 while playing his home games in the cavernous Comerica Park. His performance in 2007 was otherworldly. While he certainly would never be described as someone who hits for average, Granderson hit .302/.361/.552 that season, which was good for a phenomenal OPS+ of 135. What really stood out, however, was his entry into the 20-20-20-20 club. He became the third player in Major League history (joining Willie Mays and Frank Schulte) to get 20+ doubles, triples, home runs, and stolen bases in the same season.

Unfortunately, two years later, Granderson faltered mightily and the Tigers appeared to sour on the once budding superstar. Despite hitting a career-high 30 home runs, Granderson only hit .249/.327/.780. Granted, because of Comerica’s extreme pitcher-friendly environment, those numbers were actually around league average (OPS+ 102), but they were certainly a far cry from what had been expected of him. The poor numbers were largely driven by his horrible struggles against left-handed pitching (.183/.245/.239). That being said, lefties have always been Granderson’s weakness, but he was never as poor as he was in ’09. As a result, despite a fairly reasonable contract, the Tigers were willing to move him in the offseason.

The Yankees spotted an opportunity to acquire a young, talented player at a premium position after one down year. The price of Austin Jackson, Phil Coke, and Ian Kennedy was certainly significantly lower than it would have cost to acquire Granderson just a year earlier and, despite his poor overall numbers, the peripherals surround those numbers, combined with his age and skill-set, suggested that Granderson was a good candidate for a bounce-back year. His average on balls-in-play was only .275, a number significantly below his career norms, despite his line drive percentage actually increasing from the previous two years. In other words, Granderson appeared to be another Nick Swisher situation (although not nearly as extreme).

Granderson’s lefty power swing combined with the short porch in Yankee Stadium and the potential for a reversion to his career performance had many Yankee fans and media-types alike making lofty predictions of 35-40 home runs for Granderson in his first season in the Bronx. Unfortunately, it didn’t quite play out that way. He got things started in style with a huge, game-winning homer off Jonathan Papelbon at the rat trap otherwise known as Fenway Park during the opening series of the season.

However, shortly thereafter, he landed on the disabled list with a pulled hamstring and missed four weeks. When he returned, Granderson struggled mightily. He hit for a measly .239/.306/.415 line over the first 4+ months of the season and had a number of people calling the trade a bust, particularly when blinded by Austin Jackson’s flukey rookie season. Early in August, while the team was in Texas, Girardi benched Granderson so he could get extra work with hitting guru Kevin Long, who made some minor adjustments to his swing.

From that point forward, he posted an outstanding line of .261/ .356/.564 despite an extremely unlucky .264 BABIP. He also crushed 14 round-trippers the rest of the way after hitting only 10 from April through mid-August. Granderson was also a major factor in the Bombers’ Division Series sweep of the Minnesota Twins.

Now, although Spring Training numbers obviously don’t mean a whole lot, Granderson looks like he is ready to pick right back up where he left off. With questions about how some of the team’s stars will perform going forward to go along with their dubious pitching staff, how well Granderson sustains his surge from the end of last season could be a key to the Yankees’ 2011 season.

Cervelli’s Injury Opens the Door

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Last week I discussed the battle for the backup catcher position as well as the possible options the Yankees were looking at for bringing Jesus Montero. Well, you know what they say about the best laid plans of mice and men…

Francisco Cervelli is going to be in a boot for the next four weeks or so with a broken foot after fouling a ball off of himself. Considering those four weeks take us to opening day and Cervelli will clearly need time to make up for all of the time he is missing in Spring Training, he will certainly not be reprising his role as backup catcher when the team heads north.

That means the door is now wide open for Montero to begin the season in the Bronx. Austin Romine really isn’t in the running for the job due to his lack of experience, despite his name frequently getting mentioned in the competition and the team has continued to insist that Jorge Posada will not put on the catcher’s gear this season. Overnight, the job has become Montero’s to lose. While I expressed my concerns about having him in the Major Leagues in a backup role, the current situation is slightly different than the one originally anticipated.

First off, last night was the first time starter Russell Martin has been able to get behind the plate as he recovers from knee and hip surgeries. Because he is coming of of major injuries, it seems safe to assume that Martin will probably need his fair share of time off in the early part of the season, so the backup catcher will get plenty of at-bats. This alleviates some of the concern about having Montero losing playing time by being in the majors. He would probably catch 2-3 games a week and perhaps DH another game, so the youngster would be given plenty of opportunity to continue developing while in a backup role.

This also means that the backup role becomes more important to the team. If Martin is unable to play every day, the team isn’t going to be able to withstand the hit of having a AAAA type player like Gustavo Molina as their backup. They need someone with skill and who can provide some offense.

Additionally, while it is certainly in a small sample size, all reports from Yankee camp seem to be very impressed with the strides Montero has made behind the plate since last season. While still significantly far behind his bat in terms of both development and overall ability, Montero has gotten some very positive reviews about his defense. Girardi, Phil Hughes, and David Robertson, as well as a number of scouts, have all said they were happy with his progress. He has even managed to convince some of those who doubt his ability to stick at catcher to change their minds. Sure, it’s only been a week of games and three weeks of Spring Training overall, but the signs are certainly pointing to him being able to be an adequate defensive catcher on the Major League level.

If Montero struggles in his first call up to the big club, the Yankees have the luxury of knowing that Cervelli will be back after a couple of weeks of the regular season. That being said, it also gives Montero the opportunity to put a stangle-hold on the position in the early goings of 2011. If he hit’s as well as many are projecting he can, Montero could see his playing time increase as the season wears on and, perhaps, even the opportunity to seize the starting role.

Biggest Acquisition on the Hot Stove

(image courtesy of dailyrecord.com)

In what could potentially be the biggest move the Yankees made this offseason, the Bombers hired long-time Cubs pitching coach Larry Rothschild to replace Dave Eiland. I know, they didn’t make any big splashes during the winter, but that doesn’t downgrade the importance of adding someone of Rothschild’s caliber to the coaching staff. Not only is he extremely skilled at the position, he is replacing someone in Eiland really did a poor job of handling his pitching staff over the three years he was in New York.

The writing seemed to be on the wall for Eiland once he took that as-of-yet unexplained leave of absence for the month of June last season. The organization, Brian Cashman in particular, seemed to be unhappy with him and, as has be come his M.O. of late, was pretty vocal about it. Upon Eiland’s firing following the season, Cashman claimed that he was let go for “private and personal reasons”, which seem to point pretty clearly towards his mysterious time away from the club.

However, his dismissal could just as easily have stemmed from poor performance. In a recent entry, I discussed the issues that A.J. Burnett has encountered under Eiland and, if the mercurial Burnett were the only example, the pitching coach certainly couldn’t be faulted. That simply isn’t the case though. First and foremost has been Eiland’s failure witch regards to the Yankees’ young pitchers. In 2008, Eiland was primarily handed the job in order to shepherd the team’s new crop of young starters: Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Joba Chamberlain (given the cringeworthy nickname of ‘Generation Trey’ by the media). All three were promising, although Kennedy was less-so than the other two, and looking to hold down their first full big league seasons. Chamberlain’s issues have been discussed ad nauseum, including on this blog. Kennedy struggled mightily before being dealt to Arizona in the three-team deal that brought Curtis Granderson to the Bronx. Even Hughes, who had a nice season in pinstripes last year has developed far more slowly than was originally anticipated. There was frequent talk in the media of small alterations he would make to their deliveries which seemed to, without fail, always end disastrously. Most notably, he altered the motion that Phil Hughes used to make himself the number one pitching prospect in baseball. The result: Hughes lost a couple miles per hour off his velocity and his fastball flattened out until he returned to his old way of pitching.

Even veterans like Burnett saw decline in their numbers under Eiland. His strikeout rates have fallen and his walk rates have risen in the two years he has spent in New York. While Burnett had a decline in velocity and other issues that could explain away his performance, no such excuses exist for CC Sabathia. Yes, even CC, despite his outstanding performance, has seen a bit of decline under Eiland’s watch. He struck out 7.71 and 7.46 batters per 9 innings in 2009 and 2010 respectively while walking 2.62 and 2.80 hitters per 9. Both of these are worse than any numbers he put up since he began performing like an ace in 2006. Whether due to philosophy or an inability to address mechanical issues when they arose, Yankee pitchers underperformed pretty much across the board during Dave Eiland’s time with the team.

Thankfully, following an extremely grueling eight-hour interview process that included dissecting and analyzing video (presumably featuring the enigmatic duo of Burnett and Chamberlain), Larry Rothschild is riding into Tampa this spring on his white horse to save the day. Okay, that may be a bit over-dramatic, but for mental image purposes, it needed to be done. That being said, Rothschild should be able to have a fairly substantial impact on the staff. Most importantly, Rothschild, who was the Devil Rays’ inaugural manager prior to becoming the Cubs’ pitching coach in 2002, has gone on record as saying he believes that pitching philosophy needs to be adaptable to the individual rather than trying to have your players pitch in concordance with your philosophy.

He also specializes in one key area where Eiland’s staff struggled so mightily: strikeouts (the Cubs led the NL in K’s 7 times in his nine years there, never finishing below 4th). The vast majority of pitchers on the Cubs increased their strikeout totals when Rothschild was brought aboard. Also, while Chicago is generally near the top of the NL in walks as well, strikeouts and walks tend to go hand-in-hand. Their strikeout-to-walk ratios tended to improve, despite the high walk totals. Compared to the elevated walk totals and declines in strikeouts the team saw under Eiland, Rothschild’s strikeout-happy approach will be a welcomed step in the right direction.

It is often said that pitching coaches don’t really make much of a difference unless you have a really good one or a really bad one. Well, the Yankees just replaced an awful pitching coach with one of the best. Only time will tell how much of a difference Rothschild will make, but he certainly provides reason to be excited about the pitching (Freddy Garcia notwithstanding).

Risk vs Reward: Francisco Liriano

(image courtesy of minnpost.com)

For the last several weeks, there has been talk that the Minnesota Twins would be open to trading their ace, Francisco Liriano. The Minneapolis Star-Tribune reported that extension talks between the Twins and Liriano broke down, prompting the club to look at other options. Obviously, given the current state of their rotation (not to mention the fact that a contract is at the root of the Twins’ desire to trade) the Yankees were at the top of the list of possible destinations for the 27-year old lefthander. While both Cashman and Twins Assistant GM Rob Anthony have denied any discussions, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted that the Yankees were watching Liriano carefully and that Minnesota is following Yankees prospects. Yesterday afternoon, Nightengale told MLB Network Radio that things are heating up between the two teams and that it is possible Liriano could be dealt within the next two weeks for a package of either Ivan Nova or Joba Chamberlain and some combination of prospects.

There is no doubt that Liriano is a supreme talent. Last year, he was among the best pitchers in all of baseball, posting an outstanding 9.44 K/9 (2nd in the AL), 3.47 K/BB (5th in the AL), and 4.6 WAR (8th in the AL) while getting an excellent groundball rate of 53.6%. He had a very solid 3.62 ERA despite getting unlucky on balls in play (.331 as opposed to .313 career). His FIP was an extremely impressive 2.66, almost a full run below his actual ERA, which was the largest disparity between FIP and actual ERA among any pitcher who qualified for the ERA title, so he pitched much better than his already impressive numbers would indicate. He was, essentially, the anti-Buccholz in terms of performance versus results in 2010.

The three big reasons for Liriano’s return to success were fairly simple: the return of his velocity, control, and sinker for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2007. Upon returning to action following his rehab, Liriano’s once unhittable mid-90’s fastball was down to 90-91 MPH and was getting hit (5.12 ERA, 1.50 WHIP in 2008-09). His walk rate sky-rocketed from a tremendous 2.7 per 9 innings in 2006 to an A.J. Burnett-esque 4.1 post-injury. He began throwing fewer sinkers and saw his groundball rate plummet to close to 40%. In 2010, Liriano’s fastball sat in the 93-94 MPH range and he commanded it significantly better, walking only 2.7 men per 9 innings. He also threw his sinker with much greater frequency and effectiveness, resulting in the huge bounceback in his groundball numbers.

Of course the flip side to all of that is that Liriano needed to make that comeback because he had serious elbow surgery and that last year was the first year that he resembled the 22-year old phenom that burst onto the scene in 2006. We don’t know how much of a risk he is to re-injure that valuable left arm, but there are concerns that the injury was related to his pitching mechanics. It is worth noting that, since returning from the surgery, Liriano has only missed time due to arm fatigue related to re-building the stamina to pitch a full season again, but only time will tell whether he will be able to stay on the mound. He also hasn’t proven that his velocity and control are here to stay since 2010 was the only year he has shown his previous level of stuff since the injury, although I think that is a decidedly smaller concern than his ability to stay healthy.

Another potential reason to be wary of a deal is Liriano’s contractual status. Yes, he’s currently signed to a bargain basement deal, but he is only under team control for two more seasons. While the Yankees can obviously afford to retain him after 2012 if they so desire, the fact that he is not signed long-term hurts what type of package I would offer for him. Depending on what the “plus” is in the rumored “Joba or Nova, plus…” talks, the deal would be a no-brainer, even without a contract extension.

Liriano is an elite talent entering the prime of his career and, even given the injury concerns, would be a bargain if one of those two were the centerpiece on the Yankees’ end. I would even entertain the possibility of including Andrew Brackman or Austin Romine in the package along with some of the B/C prospects in the organization. If the Yankees are able to get him with a reasonable extension in hand, I may even be willing to build a deal around one of Betances, Banuelos, or Gary Sanchez, as much as it would hurt. I confess that I have grown really attached to some of the young potential superstars that the Yankees have cultivated, but a young lefty of Liriano’s caliber doesn’t become available very often. That being said, regardless of contract, Jesus Montero, should be off limits for anyone outside of the clearly unavailable-for-trade Felix Hernandez, Tim Lincecum, or Josh Johnson types.

Liriano would instantly take the rotation from being a weakness, to a decent upgrade over the 2010 staff (albeit, not without its question marks), and he is an acquisition that I believe could be well worth the risk if the rumored opportunity really has presented itself.