Jeckyll and Hyde: The A.J. Burnett Story

(image courtesy of NJ.com)

A.J. Burnett is coming off, to put it bluntly, one of the worst seasons in Yankees history.

After a signing an exorbitant 5 year, $82.5 million deal, Burnett put forth a solid, albeit uneven, first season in the Bronx. He put up a 4.04 ERA and, despite a drop-off from previous seasons and maintained a solid strikeout rate of 8.48 per 9 innings. However, he gave up far more fly balls than he was accustomed to, which is certainly a concern in the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, and struggled even more with his control than he had in recent years(a whopping 4.22 BB/9) . His postseason saw more of the same inconsistency. Burnett delivered good-to-great performances in three of his five playoff starts, including a purely dominant performance in game 2 of the World Series (7 innings, 4 hits, 1 run, 1 walk, 9 strikeouts). On the flip side, Mr. Hyde came out in the other two starts, where he combined for 12 earned runs in 8 innings. While he certainly didn’t live up to the dollar amounts on his contract (something that no rational fan could expect him to do, given the massive overpay the team gave him), he pitched reasonably well and helped bring another World Series title to New York.

Unfortunately, Bad A.J. showed up way more frequently than Good A.J. in 2010. He saw a significant drop-off in strikeout rate (6.99) and had an abysmal 1.51 WHIP. Burnett’s 5.26 ERA was by far the worst of his career, including his injury-riddled early years, and the 4.83 FIP and his atrocious 1.3 WAR show that he wasn’t just unlucky. Even worse, following a hot start to the season, Burnett was hammered to the tune of a 6.16 ERA and a mind-boggling .873 OPS against (basically, the equivalent of the entire league performing like Joe Mauer against him). Alarmingly, his velocity declined as well. His average fastball was down to 93.1 MPH in 2010. It was 94.2 as recently as 2009 and 95.9 in 2007. A pitcher with such tenuous control and only two legitimate pitches relies pretty heavily on his stuff, and the downward trend is definitely cause for concern.

Frighteningly, the Yankees are on the hook with Burnett for another three seasons thanks to the ill-advised contract and, due to the hole in the back end of the rotation, they are relying on a bounce-back year from the enigmatic right-hander. But what can they legitimately expect? Fans and baseball people alike have been long enamored with Burnett’s ace-like stuff and penchant to look dominant for stretches of time. However, he’s never been able to put it together for a full season and, given his age, it’s unlikely he ever will. Expecting a top-of-the-rotation performance would be foolish, but the question is whether the Yanks can at least expect him to perform like he usual self, or if they’re stuck with the awful pitcher they saw in 2010.

I believe that we will see a fairly substantial improvement in the coming season for several reasons. First and foremost is the addition of Larry Rothschild as a pitching coach. The recently departed Dave Eiland bordered on incompetent. Strikeout rates across the pitching staff dropped under his tutelage and, in many cases, walk rates increased. He also failed to identify mechanical issues mid-game, often leading to breakdowns that could ordinarily be avoided. All of these are areas of strength for Rothschild, whose Cubs pitching staffs regularly led the league in strikeouts and walk rate. A large number of Cubs pitchers saw improvement in both of these categories under Rothschild. He also understands that he needs to tailor his work to the specific pitcher, rather than simply touting a single pitching philosophy. For someone like Burnett, so reliant on the strikeout and so prone to mid-game blow ups due to mechanical breakdowns, this is vital.

Now obviously Dave Eiland isn’t entirely, or even mostly, to blame for Burnett’s horrific 2010. Burnett has to take a healthy portion of the blame himself. With somewhat diminished (although still excellent) stuff, he is going to need to throw his change-up more and to throw strikes more consistently with his devastating curve. He isn’t able to blow his fastball past hitters with the same frequency as in the early part of his career and, as a result, his opponents aren’t forced to cheat and chase the curve in the dirt as often, so locating it will be key. Burnett has a decent change, but he really doesn’t throw it often. If he is going to succeed, he will need to make it a bigger part of his repertoire. This assumption may be unwarranted, but I believe that, following last year’s performance, Burnett has come to an understanding that he doesn’t have the stuff he used to and will change his style accordingly. Again, the pitches are there, so he doesn’t need to learn anything new, he just has to utilize his arsenal more effectively.

I can’t say that I’m confident that we will see the A.J. Burnett we hoped to see in pinstripes when he signed here. He’s more likely to put up an ERA in the mid-4’s than the mid-3’s, but I do think the signs point to him at least being to deliver a representative showing in 2011 as opposed to what we saw from him in 2010.

Building the Bench

Over the years, Brian Cashman has frequently received criticism for ignoring the Yankee bench. Oftentimes, the club has headed into the season with a cast of characters that very well could have been rescued from the Island of Misfit Utility Infielders. They’ve broken camp with the likes of Miguel Cairo, Cody Ransom, Wil Nieves, and a host of other, similarly ineffective players riding the pine. Cashman has drawn heat from fans and media who believe that, with the financial might the Yankees have, they should have a bench full of capable pieces. I personally do not agree with these gripes

In my opinion, building a successful bench is easier said than done for a big market team. It is the one area of the team that their large checkbooks can’t necessarily pique the interests of the top options. Many of the better reserves would prefer to go somewhere with a less established and more fluid lineup where they can get more playing time. They may even hold out in hopes of a starting role from one of the lesser teams. Let’s face it, in many cases, a bench player on a lot of teams could hold down a starting role for the Pirates or Royals, or at least get a significant number of at-bats. As a result, a good portion of the time, the Yankees need to address the bench through trades, the farm, and the scrap heap, all of which present their own set of obstacles to success.

On top of the difficulty they often have acquiring adequate pieces prior to the start of the season, I also think that having fluidity on the bench can be a positive thing. While I’m certainly not saying that it’s preferable to have a bad bench to having a good bench, adaptability is one of the most important characteristics a bench can have. Rather than saddling themselves with multi-year and multi-million dollar contracts heading into the season, having scrap heap projects and young players with options on the bench heading into the season allows the team to acquire useful veterans to fill specific needs that arise via trade as the season progresses. Oftentimes, these players, like Austin Kearns, Lance Berkman, and Jerry Hairston, are the types of players fans are clambering for to fill out the roster prior to the season, but aren’t likely to sign on for such a limited role over the course of a full season.

That brings us to this year’s candidates for bench jobs out of Spring Training. Keeping with the theme they’ve held through the years of flexibility through scrap-heap players and youngsters, only one spot on the bench is set in stone heading into Spring Training. Andruw Jones signed a one-year deal worth $2 million plus incentives during the offseason. He will be the team’s fourth outfielder in 2011. While Jones is certainly a shadow of his former, All-Star caliber self, I certainly wouldn’t lump him into the reclamation project category. He is still a plus defender in the corner outfield and is at least adequate on a short-term basis in center. He also still provides plenty of right-handed pop, hitting 19 homers in only 278 at-bats last season. Jones also raked against left-handed pitching, posting a .254/.373/.558 line. He essentially provides the team with what Marcus Thames did last year, but he won’t compile his own personal blooper reel in the field. As I said earlier, this type of quality bench player usually chooses to play elsewhere, since the Yankees have such a set lineup. However, Jones himself stated that, in this case, he saw an opportunity for ample playing time. While I think it may be less time than Andruw suspects, both Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson are lefty bats who struggle against lefties, so Jones could see some at-bats subbing in for one of them.

The other three bench spots are fairly wide open: backup catcher, utility infielder, and the 25th man. I detailed the decision surrounding the backup catcher spot in my last post, so I won’t get into it too heavily here. Russell Martin’s backup is shaping up to be a race between Francisco Cervelli, who held the role last year and portions of 2009, and prospects Jesus Montero and Austin Romine. Romine, while a solid prospect, has almost no chance of winning the spot on the roster. He has yet to play at the AAA level and, following a somewhat disappointing 2010 (.268/.324/.402) with Trenton, he still needs quite a bit of development both with the glove and the bat. Montero is far and away the most talented candidate, but the question remains whether or not the Yankees prefer having him start everyday in Scranton, or backing up in the Bronx. Cervelli put up decent overall numbers for a backup catcher (88 OPS+), but they were propped up by some extreme luck on balls in play early in the season, he provides absolutely no power to speak of, and his defense was pretty awful.

The utility infield position is a fairly straightforward battle between Ramiro Pena and Eduardo Nunez. Pena has more experience, is a better defender, and is reportedly learning to play the outfield. Unfortunately, I would have more faith in CC Sabathia getting a hit than Pena. Nunez is a serviceable offensive player as a utility man who runs extremely well and has improved fairly dramatically over the last year or so with the glove. I personally do not think he has much of a chance to ever be much more than a utility infielder, so I don’t think it will be detrimental to his development to stick him on the bench and would prefer he got the spot on the team. However, I’m not convinced the organization feels the same way and believe Pena will end up winning out.

The final spot on the roster could be one of any number of guys. Whoever loses out in the battle between Nunez and Pena will fall into a pool of retreads, prospects, and filler alike. Ideally, Brandon Laird would step up and take the job since he provides some decent power and can play both corners in the infield and the outfield. I also think he will end up being a useful utility player throughout his career a la Brandon Inge and am looking forward to seeing him finally break through to the Majors, although I’m not convinced that he’s quite ready to make that leap. Other young possibilities include outfielders Greg Golson, Justin Maxwell, and Colin Curtis; none of whom are exceptionally exciting, although if the recently acquired Maxwell can shake the injury bug that ruined his prospect status in Washington, he could end up being a useful 5-tool player. Eric Chavez and Ronnie “Mini-Manny” Belliard will both try to resurrect their careers as non-roster invitees. The once tremendous Chavez has had his career devastated by injuries over the past several years. Belliard is coming of of a horrible year in LA. If I had to guess based on the info gleaned from yesterday’s team photos, Belliard’s demise seems to have been caused by fatness rather than injury. I suspect the team would prefer someone who can play the infield and hit for power. If Chavez is magically able to stay healthy, I believe he is the odds on favorite, with Laird as my sleeper candidate.

While it’s safe to say that, as usual, the reserves on the Yankees’ squad will be a work in progress, I believe that this group provides the flexibility and talent to offer some serviceable options off the bench late in a game, or if one of the regulars needs a day or two off. They ought to provide enough relief to hold down the fort until Cashman makes his annual string of bench fortification deals and, if Eric Chavez sells his soul in an effort to actually stay on the field, I think the bench actually has the potential to be a real strength for once.

Jesus’ Path to the Promised Land

(photo courtesy of AP)

Unless the Yankees make an ill-advised trade, the long awaited and much hyped Jesus Montero era will soon be upon us. Montero is the best position prospect the organization has had in years (by most accounts, the best since Derek Jeter hit the scene) and, despite being young for his level no matter where he’s been, Montero has put up big numbers at every stop along his conquest of the minor leagues. After a slow first half adjusting to AAA, he raked to the tune of .351/.396/.684 with 14 homers after the All-Star break.

There seems to be no doubt that his bat is ready for the big show, but questions remain as to whether Montero, who just turned 21 in late November, is ready for duty behind the plate on the Major League level. There are also doubts as to whether the monstrous man-child will be able to stick behind the plate long term due to his enormous 6’4″, 225 pound frame and his inconsistent defensive performance. The Yankees insist they believe he has what it takes to remain at the position, but while they are in the best position to evaluate Montero, it also behooves them to lead others to believe he can catch, regardless of their actual opinion.

Heading into camp, Girardi and Cashman have given every indication that Montero is in the running (along with the incumbent Fransisco Cervelli and fellow prospect Austin Romine) to make the club as Russell Martin’s back-up. In terms of talent and importance to the organization, Montero is by far the top candidate, so the decision is likely to come down to what the franchise believes is best for the development of Jesus. There are two main plans of action (assuming they don’t keep him in Scranton for the entire season, which they seem extremely unlikely to do). I like to call them the Jorge Posada Model and the Buster Posey Method.

The last time the Yankees were in a position to be breaking in a new catching prospect was back in 1997 when Posada was first establishing himself in the Bronx. You probably remember that Poada broke in by splitting time with Girardi, gradually taking more playing time until he became the full-time starter (increasing from 59 games behind the plate in ’97 to 139 in ’00). The Yankees allowed Posada to develop on the job in the Major Leagues, believing that he would be able to continue to develop as a bench player against better competition and with big league coaching despite less playing time than he would receive in AAA.

The Yankees have already said that they believe Montero could benefit from a backup role. “You can develop a lot playing twice a week too at this level,” Girardi said earlier in camp. He also said that, were Montero to make the club out of Spring Training, they would find creative ways to get him at-bats. Jesus would also have the opportunity to learn every day under the tutelage of Girardi and Tony Pena, both phenomenal defenders in their day, with the Major League coaching staff.

The other option is to do what the defending champion Giants did last year with their young catching phenom, Buster Posey. Posey began the year in AAA, developing his skills by playing every day against minor league competition before being called up on May 29 and becoming the team’s starting catcher. He then, obviously, went on to have a phenomenal campaign, winning the NL Rookie of the Year and helping the Giants win their first World Series since re-locating to the West Coast. Earlier today, Girardi mentioned Posey by name when discussing Montero’s 2011 prospects.

Of course, Posey is two years older than Montero and much more developed defensively, but it’s easy to see the merits behind this line of thinking. First of all, he would be playing every day, both in the minors and, eventually, in the Majors rather than having the 21 year old sit on the bench most of the time. For someone who needs to improve his defensive game, the opportunity to gain numerous reps and catch a large number of innings could be extremely useful, plus he would be doing it away from the harsh spotlight of Yankee Stadium. Let him develop until Martin loses the job to injury or poor performance or until Montero forces his way into the lineup.

Additionally, not adding him to the Big League roster until a couple months have passed will delay his arbitration clock and give the Bombers an extra year of cost-controlled production. While this may not be as crucial to high rollers like the Yankees or Red Sox as it is to smaller market teams, there’s a lot of value to getting elite production on the cheap.

My gut tells me that the team is going to follow its past history and utilize the Posada Model as long as Jesus at least shows himself to be competent in Spring Training. The Yankees know they have a special player who is ready to hit in the Major Leagues and they want him helping the team as soon as possible, plus they’ve had success with it in the past. Personally, I would prefer the Posey Method because I think it gives Montero the best opportunity to develop the defensive skills he is going to need to maximize his value to the team and because it allows him to be an every day player once he makes it to the show. It’s still uncertain whether Montero is going to be a catcher for long, but the Yankees owe it to themselves to give him every opportunity to develop and stick behind the plate. The value of a catcher, even a shoddy fielding one, who can hit the way Jesus looks like he will is off the charts. Either way, it’s going to be awfully exciting to see a prospect of his caliber hit the Bronx, whether it’s out of Spring Training, or part way through the season.

The Captain Conundrum

Yesterday, Hank Steinbrenner ran his mouth to the papers (surprise, surprise) to take a shot at, of all people, Derek Jeter. In the much talked about statement, Hank, probably trying to channel of the bombastic, star-bashing ways of old Boss, said, “[last year] some of the players, too busy building mansions … and not concentrating on winning.” It was a pretty thinly veiled criticism of the Captain and his new multi-million dollar mansion in Tampa.

Now, anyone who paid even moderate attention to the team in 2010 knows that Derek Jeter simply wasn’t Derek Jeter. The future Hall-of-Famer, usually the model of consistency, had, far and away, the worst year of his phenomenal career. He put up a line of .270 / .340 / .370 with a dismal 90 OPS+ (.127 OPS points lower than his career average and .161 below his previous season). He was less patient at the plate, seeing fewer pitches despite a higher number of plate appearances. Also, while never a great fielder, Jeter took a step or two back defensively after a nice spike in his defensive performance the year before. That being said, Steinbrenner’s comments were absolutely asinine and I don’t think there is a baseball fan, Yankees or otherwise, who thinks there is any merit in them whatsoever. Even throwing his well-known pride, work ethic, and fierce competitiveness aside, it’s awfully hard to believe that a player in his contract year, with a lucrative multi-year deal at stake, will be more worried about his new digs than he is about his performance on the diamond.

There aren’t a lot of successful shortstops in their late 30s and the Yankees just signed the face of their franchise to a deal that will take him until the age of 40. It is a move that I believe is extremely risky. I really think Jeter should only have received a 2 year deal. Maybe a vesting option for a third year would be acceptable, but as much as I appreciate everything he’s done for the franchise over the last 15 seasons, he wasn’t going to get more, or even equal, value from someone else. That being said, the deal is done, no matter how ill-advised it may have been. The main questions that now surround Derek Jeter aren’t whether or not Hank’s accusations have any credence, but rather what caused his poor 2010, and what we can expect from him going forward. Were his depressed numbers a result of injury, age-related deterioration of skill, or simply a down year?

Jeter played in 157 games (his most since 2005) and his month-to-month splits are fairly consistent across the board (aside from a very good April), so I think that it’s fair to rule out injury as the main culprit for his poor season. If he was hurt, he probably would have missed at least a few games at some point or had an inconsistent level of play. That leaves the option of either age or just a bad year. I think that it is some combination of the two, with more of an emphasis on a poor season.

To my eyes, Derek appeared to have lost a step getting down the line and his bat wasn’t quite as quick as hit had been in previous years. The range that he surprised us with in 2009 was gone again and his defense worsened pretty significantly. His line drive percentage was down, as was his home run to fly-ball ratio, but his strikeouts and walks were pretty much on par with his career numbers. His BABIP was down significantly over his career numbers (49 point decrease), which I think is too great to be accounted for just from poor performance. He was a bit unlucky, too. In the end, I think we may have seen the end of Derek Jeter as a .315 / .380 / .450 player, but I think it’s too early to be eulogizing his career as an effective player. From everything we know about him, he probably worked his tail off this offseason and is a likely bet to rebound at least a bit.

I think it’s fair to expect a .285 – .295 hitter for the next few years, with a similar bump in OBP and slugging. Bill James and MARCEL are both showing similar boosts in performance (though much more scientific means than my own predictions). Luckily, even a lesser Jeter is in the top third of shortstops (8th in wOBA and 9th in WAR even in his 2010 season) even if he isn’t the force he once was (1st and 2nd in both categories respectively the previous season).

The bigger issue going forward is defense. He plays a barely passable shortstop as is and it seems unlikely that he will be able to field the position over the life of his deal. There is no good answer to this problem (and my main objection to him getting such a long deal). His offensive numbers aren’t suited for anywhere other than shortstop, catcher, 2nd, and center. Obviously, there’s a 0% chance of ever seeing the captain behind the plate. Unless something catastrophic happens, 2nd base is locked up for the foreseeable future and, while many have speculated a move to center could be in Jeter’s future, I’m skeptical as to whether a man in his late 30s, no matter how athletic, can make the move to center after spending his entire career in the infield. He could probably handle 1st base and the corner outfield positions defensively, but he doesn’t have the offensive numbers for either. His major defensive flaw is his reaction time, not his foot-speed, which would seem to eliminate third base from the equation. It appears as though, in a couple years time, he will be a man without a position. It will be a situation worthy of close attention for as long as the Captain remains in the league. Until his age forces a move, however, I think we can expect a little bit of a bounce back from Derek Jeter, even if he isn’t the same player we’ve grown accustomed to watching.

Miguel Cabrera Arrested for DUI

Per Buster Olney on ESPN radio, Miguel Cabrera was arrested on Wednesday night for a DUI and “other charges”. According to the ESPN.com article on the incident, the MVP candidate “had slurred speech and took a swig from a bottle of Scotch in front of a deputy” and that he refused to cooperate.

Obviously, with Cabrera having had his alcohol and domestic issues from a couple seasons ago, this has the potential to get very ugly for one of the game’s biggest stars. While I don’t think this blog is the place to get into Cabrera’s personal issues, I do think this could have a pretty major impact on the American League race this season, depending on what sort of dicipline Cabrera faces. There is also clearly a concern for where Cabrera is mentally when you combine not only the arrest, but his behavior at the scene. Even if he is on the field, there have to be questions about how he will be able to perform.

With the additions of Victor Martinez and Adam Dunn to the middle of the lineup, the Tigers are poised to make a run at the Twins in the AL Central and have the ability to be a viable Wild Card contender. Despite some pretty big issues with the pitching (you think the Yankees have problems in the back of the rotation? How do Phil Coke and Brad Penny sound?), they look to be a team that can cause some problems in the American League.

Will Cabrera’s legal and personal issues capsize this ship? Well, it all depends on how serious the ramifications are, but it certainly does more than raise your eyebrows. One thing is certain, if Cabrera isn’t able to stay on the field and perform at his typical MVP caliber level, the Tigers are sunk and the AL Central becomes a two team race (with one fewer team vying for the Wild Card). There is now legitimate concern about one of the games brightest young stars and what direction his career and team could head in going forward.

Joba Ruled (For A Little While)

I admit it. I totally bought into the Joba hype. Who didn’t? When he came tearing through three levels of the minors in 2007, throwing upper 90s fastballs with that devastating slider, and maintaining it as late as the 8th inning, we all thought we had the next big thing on our hands; a genuine, home-grown ace. But a funny thing happened on the way to super-stardom for the phenom out of Nebraska.

First, as the big league squad climbed out of the giant hole they dug for themselves in the first half and made a push for the post-season, Chamberlain began to near his innings limit in the minors. As a way of killing two birds with one stone, the Bombers’ front office decided to temporarily shift Chamberlain to the bullpen, filling a desperate need for another relief arm while simultaneously limiting the prospect’s innings.

As we all know, Joba burst onto the scene, posting some ridiculous numbers (0.38 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 12.8 K/9) and developing an almost rockstar-esque following overnight (I confess, I had a Joba Rules t-shirt, too). Unbeknownst to everyone, these couple of months of unabashed success would eventually lead to his rapid downfall. Even following Midge-gate in Cleveland, the hype surrounding Joba became so great that, despite his time in the bullpen being purely for the purpose of controlling his innings, many fans and media members began thinking of him as a reliever rather than a starter, even prompting many to dub him the heir apparent to the Great Mariano. Unfortunately, it also seemed to create a divide amongst members of the front-office as to which role he was best suited for.

Because of all the hype, combined with impatience on the part of the organization, sending Joba back to AAA for the start of the 2008 season to build up his innings total (remember, 2007 was his first season as a professional and he had only thrown 89 innings at Nebraska in 2006) was no longer an option. Instead, the organization made an ill-advised and, eventually, catastrophic (in terms of baseball, anyway) decision: limit Chamberlain’s innings by having him begin the season in the bullpen and transition him to the rotation mid-season. The move looked to be paying dividends as he posted a 2.28 ERA in 20 relief appearances before the move to the rotation where he was even more dominant, unleashing a 2.23 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP, over 10 K/9, and a sub-.600 OPS against through his first 11 starts a big leaguer.

It all came crashing down on that fateful night in Arlington, Texas where Chamberlain left in the 5th inning with a shoulder injury. The Yankees place him on the disabled list for four weeks before mind-bogglingly bringing him back in a relief role for the final month of the season despite being out of the pennant race rather than just shutting him down for the rest of the year. Joba was back, but his velocity stayed behind and, to this day, still hasn’t come back aside from glimpses in a select few appearances this past year.

That offseason, Joba was arrested for a DUI and there was talk of him showing up to Spring Training out of shape (or rather, more out of shape). Additionally, new pitching coach Dave Eiland tinkered with Chamberlain’s mechanics and made a few changes that were supposed to help prevent injury. The year that followed would be best described as “erratic”. The season was plagued by inconsistency in both results and velocity and it featured Joba’s highest walk rate to date. Outside of a dominant three-start stretch following the All-Star break, he never really resembled the phenomenal starter he had been in the previous season and he faltered so greatly down the stretch that Joe Girardi opted to go with a three-man rotation rather than trot Joba out to the mound for a post-season start. 2010 saw Chamberlain bumped back to the bullpen where he gave a very uneven effort. At times he looked filthy while, at others, he looked hopeless. As the season wore on, he was called on in fewer and fewer high leverage situations.

That brings us to 2011. It is a make-or break season for the young right-hander. Only a few short years ago, he looked poised to put up Felix Hernandez-like numbers. Now, he’s fighting David Robertson and Boone Logan for 6th and 7th inning appearances. Cashman has said he no longer has the stuff to be a starting pitcher. His trade value has plummeted to the point of being almost nothing. This could be Chamberlain’s last chance to salvage his career: to either become, once again, a valuable member of the Yankees or to increase his value enough to be a part of a package for a starting pitcher.

In my opinion, the role that best suits him and best fills a need on this team would be to serve as a replacement for the recently departed Alfredo Aceves as the swingman. Both Aceves and, before him, Ramiro Mendoza, showed how valuable it can be to have someone who can be both an effective short reliever and somebody to eat up innings. Even at this stage of his career, I think Joba’s skill-set would allow him to have some level of success in that role. Granted, I would prefer he get another shot at the rotation because that’s where the team’s greatest need lies and because it seems like such a waste to have him in middle relief, but Cashman has put the kibosh on that. With Rivera and Soriano on-board, the back end of the bullpen is obviously not an option either.

Early reviews from the first couple days of camp have been mixed. Reportedly, Joba has managed to find that extra weight that CC lost during the offseason and Cashman has been quoted as saying he’s no lock to make the team. On the other hand, he has supposedly made some alterations to his mechanics with the help of new pitching coach Larry Rothschild (hopefully for the better, this time) and has been throwing the ball pretty hard in his bullpen sessions.

Regardless of what this season brings, it’s pretty hard to look at Joba Chamberlain and not think of what might have been. There has been plenty of debate over who exactly was responsible for Joba’s demise. Was it his own laziness? Was it mismanagement by the organization? Outside pressure from the fans and media? Was it his fist pump’s fault? Terrible luck with an injury? Dave Eiland’s mechanical tweaks? In my mind, this has all been caused, primarily because of mismanagement that lead to an injury and poor response to that injury, but all are responsible to varying degrees (okay, probably not the fist pump, but the rest of them all have some degree of culpability) and they combined for one of the most disappointing falls from grace in recent Yankee memory. Hopefully the kid will find a way to resurrect his career and be a pleasant surprise for all of us this year.

On A Wing And A Prayer

So, I’m not sure if you’ve heard, but there are question marks about the rotation heading into this year. With the unfortunate retirement of Andy Pettitte and the significantly less unfortunate departure of Javy Vazquez and friends, the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation are as up for grabs as a MacBook at a Buchholz family reunion. The cast of thousands vying for the back in the rotation features some young arms with plenty of upside, but no track record, and a couple of guys who were great a decade ago.

The Veterans: Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon were both brought into Tampa on minor league deals with hopes that one or both of the former AL All-Stars could re-capture their past glory. While Fat Bart hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since ’09, Garcia had a relatively decent season with the White Sox last year (4.64 ERA in 157 innings) after re-inventing himself as a change-up artist to overcome some of his lost fastball velocity. His experience, combined with recent success makes him an early favorite to win a spot. Colon has not pitched more than 100 innings in a season since 2005 and has bounced around, pitching pretty mediocrely ever since. He supposedly looked good in winter-ball and early photos from Spring Training make it look like he may have lost a bit of weight (on loan to Joba, perhaps?), but unless he knocks everyone’s socks off during camp or if the other candidates falter, he would have to be considered a longshot to make the club at this point.

The Kids: The Yankees currently have a ton of young arms with legitimate shots at long, successful Major League careers, four of whom have a decent-to-good chance of coming north with the team. Aside from Ivan Nova (24 years old), who finished the 2010 season in New York, Hector Noesi (24), Adam Warren (23), and David Phelps (24) all come to Spring Training with their eyes on the Bronx. The four were recently ranked 8th, 9th, 10th, and 12th respectively amongst Yankees prospects by River Ave. Blues. All have solid stuff, excellent command and, (as I’m sure many fans will be happy to hear) no restrictive innings limits. Of the three who have yet to hit the big show, Noesi excites me the most, as his fastball command is billed as the best in the system, although his stuff isn’t quite up to par with the other guys. Nova has experience on his side and the best stuff of the bunch. During his time in the Bronx, he flashed some real ability and, although he struggled to work deep into ballgames, he did enough to warrant some decent expectations heading into 2011. While the fifth and final spot in the rotation is most likely Nova’s to lose, any of the other three could just as easily impress throughout March and make their own claim to the position. Either way, it would not be the least bit surprising if any and/or all of them made their way to the big club before all is said and done this season.

So what are these guys going to be asked to do for the Bombers? Well, they need to fill the 21 starts of outstanding work from Andy Pettitte, 26 vomit-inducing starts out of Home Run Javy, and 19 starts by the three-headed monster known as Dustergivan Novitley. The offense, top 60% of the rotation, and the bullpen should all be at least as good as, if not better, than they were last year. In other words, the back end of the rotation just needs to approximate what they got from the 4 and 5 spots in 2010 in order to be right back where they were last year, if not better.

Those five non-CC/Phil/AJ pitchers combined for: 66 starts, 374.1 innings (5 2/3 per start), 4.69 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 6.44 K/9, 1.89 K/BB, 1.47 HR/9, 4.94 FIP.

Will this year’s candidates be able to match those numbers? We can’t really say for sure at this point. However, even though they are faced with the prospect of replacing Pettitte, the back of the rotation won’t exactly be asked to set the world on fire in order to keep the team afloat. According to fangraphs.com, Garcia (4.44 ERA, 4.42 FIP), Colon (4.36, 4.60), and Nova (4.06, 4.08) are all projected by the MARCEL projection system to be able to compete with those numbers.

The Yankees may have missed out on Cliff Lee, lost Pettitte, and failed to make any big time trades, but the outlook of this 2011 pitching staff is not nearly as bleak as you may have believed. At the very least, some combination of the guys in camp should be able to hold their heads above water until reinforcements arrive in the form of a mid-season pickup or one of the Killer B’s.

The Five Best Words in the English Language…

Ah, the five best words in the English language: “Pitchers and catchers report today. (Yeah, I know I’m running up against the clock for that to still apply, but it still applies as I write this, none-the-less.

Nothing exciting actually happened today, just a punch of guys taking physicals and stretching and whatnot (and a bunch of them had been there doing exactly that for a couple weeks at this point), but it makes all the difference in the world. Baseball is officially starting up again. Spring is officially here (I don’t care what the ground hog, the mountains of snow on the ground, or the calendar have to say on the matter. It’s spring, now).

Today is a day when everyone in the league has a fresh start. The Pirates, Astros, and Royals are getting ready for camp just the same as the Yankees, Phillies, and Red Sox. Sure, reality will set in after a couple days and everyone realizes Pittsburgh’s well on their way to their 19th consecutive losing season, but there is just something exciting about “pitchers and catchers report today”. So-and-so is in the best shape of his life. Such-and-such has been working on a new pitch all winter. This guy’s ready for a breakout season. That guy’s ready for a bounce-back year.

Today is just a celebration of all the potential a new season has to offer; the thrill of knowing that your old friend baseball is back from its winter-long hibernation and that a brand new season is just around the corner. You don’t have to worry about a boneheaded decision the manager made last night or the three-run lead your setup man just coughed up. You don’t need to worry about the slump your lead-off hitter is in or that you have a big series coming up against a tough opponent. You have months upon months to deal with that, but today you don’t. None of the stress of the regular season (or even of the rest of Spring Training) is here yet, just all of the promise that it holds and all of the excitement the thought of baseball brings.

Sure, the Yankees have plenty of question marks. They’ve been discussed ad-nauseum all off-season. We all know about the questions surrounding the rotation, about whether Jeter can return to form, whether Montero will be able to stick behind the plate and when he’ll actually make it to the Bronx, how Posada will handle the DH role. The list goes on. But today none of that matters. All that matters is that baseball is back. You can hear the crack of the bat and the ball pounding into the leather in your head. You can smell the hot dogs and beer. You can see players rounding the bases. You can enjoy the fact that “pitchers and catchers report today”.

Welcome to the Silent Pinstripe Yankees Blog!

Hey there everybody. My name is Greg Psomas and I would like to welcome you to my Yankees blog. Needless to say, I am an enormous fan of both the Bombers and the great game of baseball. I’ve been rooting the team on ever since I was a little boy growing up in New Jersey, even when I was too young to know that there actually more players on the team than just Don Mattingly. As I got older, my passion for the team grew exponentially (people who know me might potentially refer to it as an obsession) and I’ve been following the sport closely for as long as I can remember.

For close to the past six-and-a-half years I have been in the precarious position of a Yankees fan living in the shadows of Fenway Park here in Boston, Massachusetts.I had the great misfortune of arriving in the Back Bay about a month before that fateful 2004 postseason. It certainly hasn’t always been easy to live in enemy territory, but the time I’ve spent here has only served to increase my love of that interlocking “NY” and to further my appreciation of all the history, tradition, and excitement those pinstripes represent. Not only that, but  celebrating in the heart of “the Nation” made that 2009 championship that much sweeter.

As spring training gets underway and the Yankees get ready to re-start their quest to bring #28 to the Bronx, I am looking forward to sharing my thoughts, opinions, and reactions with all of you and I how were can get some great baseball discussion going on here. I’ll be back with more thoughts later. Until then, let’s go Yankees!